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Tether co-founder William Quigley on how halving Bitcoin will change the cryptocurrency market

His perspective focuses on the shape of the market after halving, taking into account the impact of reduced supply on price and investor behavior.

Date: 2024-03-28 Author: Marek Stiller
Tether co-founder William Quigley on how halving Bitcoin will change the cryptocurrency market

Thehalving of Bitcoin is a significant event in the cryptocurrency sphere, signaling a change for miners, institutions and the market as a whole.

This scheduled event, which occurs roughly every four years, is expected to have a direct impact on Bitcoin’s supply, cutting the reward for mining in half, a key aspect aimed at preserving its value over time.

In an interview with , William Quigley, a venture capitalist who co-founded stablecoin issuer Tether and NFT platform, delved into the broader implications of Bitcoin halving.

Quigley talked in detail about the intricacies of Bitcoin halving, its direct impact on the cryptocurrency market, and in particular how it affects both miners and individual investors.

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin’s price will reach $300,000.

First, Quigley mentioned the post-halving Bitcoin price forecast, saying how the market will adjust to the event based on previous records.

Quigley said: “Historically, Bitcoin prices have risen during the months ofhalving.” “During the first halving in November 2012. Bitcoin rose 100-fold from its pre-12 dollar level to the $1,200 level.”

The price increased about thirty times during the second halving, rising from $650 to $20,000. He said the price of the third halving increased eight times, from $8500 to about $19,500.

Quigley noted that Bitcoin’s multiplier has gradually decreased from 100 to 30 times, and more recently eight times, despite the continued increase in price. If Bitcoin’s price were to return to the $70,000 level by April 20, its value could quadruple and surpass the $300,000 mark.

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Quigley also took into account historical statistics from previous post-halving growth cycles, suggesting that it will take between 500 days and 18 months to reach the next record high, which will occur in October 2025 for the fourth event.

The impact of Bitcoin’s halving on miners and investors

The cryptocurrency veteran continued to analyze the chain of reactions of Bitcoin miners, individual investors and financial institutions after the halving.

“In order for Bitcoin to continue to operate as it should, we need to reduce the number of Bitcoins mined per day,” Quigley said. “So we will drop from 900 to 450 starting [probably] April 20.”

Reducing mining rewards would then present serious challenges and opportunities for miners. “Now, a few months ago, when Bitcoin was around 40,000, most Bitcoin miners were profitable… At the current level of 67,000, they are very profitable,” Quigley said.

Even if the price of Bitcoin can rise sharply to boost the profit margins of mining operations, competition is likely to intensify proportionately as more industry players look to profit from the rally.

For individual investors, the halving event presents a diverse landscape. Quigley’s advice is based on a long-term investment horizon.

He stressed that Bitcoin operates as an open source platform, maintained and used by a community of independent users, unlike traditional companies that generate their own profits and release new products.

As such, no financial metrics can determine Bitcoin’s value. Quigley said: “Bitcoin is valued solely based on the sentiment of the people who buy and sell it.”

If you try to trade based on sentiment every day, those sentiments will have a different impact. It goes up and down throughout the day. Quigley said: “I wouldn’t trade it.” “If you’re going to buy bitcoin or any cryptocurrency first, it should be a very small percentage of your net worth.”

“Also, never buy cryptocurrencies if you are not able to hold them for five years,” he – he added. “Which doesn’t mean that you will actually hold that position for five years.”

More Crypto trading companies after Bitcoin halving

In terms of institutional players in the industry, the co-founder of Tether and WAX argued that more quantitative trading firms specializing in cryptocurrency investments will emerge after the halving, due to the growing volume of trading.

“During the first halving in 2012, the daily trading volume was probably less than $1 million,” Quigley said. “By the third event in 2020, we were earning between $15 billion and $30 billion a day, up to a hundred billion.”

“When you have so much cryptocurrency trading 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are price disparities that people can take advantage of,” – he explained.

“The main volume of bitcoin trading is in bitcoin futures. If you can use leverage to exploit them, you can make a lot of money, but you can also lose a lot.” – Quigley said. “But the futures markets will always attract people who think they can take advantage of the price differential and make a lot ofmoney.”

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Marek Stiller
Marek Stiller
Founder of the "Cryptocurrency for Beginners" channel on YouTube. He collaborates with Łukasz to form the Arena Trading group, while at the same time being passionate about blockchain technology. His knowledge and experience in the cryptocurrency industry help beginner investors better understand this dynamic market.
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