Cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket has surpassed $1 billion in trading volume, with more than a third of the volume generated in the last 30 days. According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket recorded $343 million in betting volume as of July 30, a sharp increase from $111 million in June and $63 million in May.
The surge is primarily due to speculation about the US presidential election.
More than $429 million in bets on the outcome of the presidential election
More than $429 million has been bet on the outcome of the November 4 presidential election so far, with Donald Trump leading the betting with odds of 60%. Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a significant improvement from 1% to 38% following President Biden ‘s unexpected withdrawal from the race.
While the main attraction for Polymarket users is political events, the platform also offers prediction markets in areas such as cryptocurrencies, sports, business and the 2024 Olympics.
on May 14, Polymarket completed a $70 million Series B funding round led by Founder Fund Peter Thiel, which also included Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
In order to streamline the registration process, especially for non-cryptocurrency users, Polymarket partnered with payment platform MoonPay on July 24, allowing debit and credit card payments.
To further capitalize on the growing interest in US political speculation, Polymarket hired election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as an advisor on July 16.
Despite its popularity in betting on US events, Polymarket remains unavailable to US users due to regulatory restrictions.
“Predictive markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy,” – wrote Yuga Cohler, chief engineer of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, in a recent post on X.
“They use free markets and freedom of speech as input and output. At a time when centralized control of information is a systemic risk, predictive markets offer a way to cut through misleading narratives and see the unembellished truth.”
Trump’s remarks ignite Bitcoin’s rise
The dynamics of the bitcoin market have recently been reinvigorated by former President Donald Trump ‘s bullish remarks about the cryptocurrency, said Shubh Varma, CEO and co-founder of Hyblock Capital, in a recent note.
During his speech at the bitcoin conference, Trump proposed the resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and suggested the creation of a bitcoin strategic reserve, even comparing bitcoin’s market capitalization to that of gold.
“Such a proxy statement from an important political figure was almost unimaginable just two years ago, signaling a significant shift in the narrative around bitcoin and its potential future,” Varma said. He also noted that growing institutional interest in bitcoin further supports this optimistic outlook.
The Michigan State Retirement System has allocated about 5% of its assets under management to bitcoin ETFs, making it the second state pension fund to embrace the digital asset, after Wisconsin.
In addition, Jersey City‘s municipal pension plan, as announced by Mayor Steven Fulop, is to invest in bitcoins through ETFs.
