A significant Bitcoin outflow from miners could be on the horizon in the months following the upcoming halving. In a recent note, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, estimated that Bitcoin miners have the potential to liquidate about $5 billion worth of BTC after halving.
Thielen also stressed that selling pressure from miners could continue for four to six months, leading to a potential sideways movement in the Bitcoin price during this period, similar to what has been seen in previous halving cycles.
He highlighted the historical pattern of Bitcoin prices staying in the $9,000 to $11,500 range during the five months after halving in 2020.
The impact of halving on Altcoins
Halving, which will occur around April 20, is expected to cause an imbalance between supply and demand, as miners typically accumulate BTC before the event. This accumulation often results in a subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices.
In 2024, Bitcoin surged 74% and reached an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14, before undergoing a correction to below $63,000 in mid-April.
Thielen also expressed concern about altcoins, suggesting that they could bear the brunt of the situation. Many altcoins have experienced significant declines in recent weeks and are still far from the peak levels reached in 2021.
While there are predictions of a potential halving-related altcoin rise, historical evidence suggests that such rises usually begin almost six months later.
The analyst went on to speculate that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin mining company, is likely to have accumulated inventory that will be gradually sold after halving to avoid a sudden drop in revenue.
Thielen estimated that Marathon’s stockpile, combined with post-halving mining production of 14-15 BTC per day, could bring supply to the market for an additional 133 days.
If other miners adopt a similar strategy of phasing out their post-halving inventories, Thielen warned that this could lead to daily BTC sales of up to $104 million, potentially reversing the supply-demand imbalance that fueled BTC growth before halving .
Marathon CEO Peter Thiel previously mentioned that the company’s break-even point after halving would be around $46,000 per BTC, suggesting limited expectations for significant price changes in the six months following the event.
How will Bitcoin’s halving affect the markets?
Cryptocurrency speculators are eagerly anticipating Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, which is expected to occur around April 20. Given that Bitcoin recently reached a historic peak, doubts have been raised as to whether halving this time will be as significant as in previous cycles.
First, billionaire Arthur Hayes has expressed a cautious view of Bitcoin’s upcoming halving and its impact on the asset’s price. While many experts are predicting a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price after halving, Hayes believes that the price action before and after the event may actually be negative.
Similarly, Coinbase warned that the time of year could pose a challenge to upward momentum, as investors wait for price action to surge before halving Bitcoin.
