Bitcoin can fall even further and still maintain its bull market and historical record.
That’s according to the latest BTC price analysis, which paints an optimistic picture of how BTC/USD is performing despite a 10% drop in 24 hours.
Bullish price declines in the BTC market often approach 40%.
Long-time market participants agree that bitcoin continues to follow the classic path toward new macro records.
Despite the increased volatility of the BTC price near its historic 2021 highs of $69,000, Bitcoin ‘s current bullish run remains fully intact.
This will remain the case even in the event of a much deeper correction from the current level around $68,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
In comments on the March 15 X, a pseudonymous trader known as Bags focused on the upcoming reduction in the bloc’s subsidies.
He compared previous cycles of reduction to levels that all showed major price pullbacks of nearly 40% before the event to later price discovery.
“Currently -38% from $73.5k = $45.5k,” he wrote, calculating the potential range of declines from Bitcoin’s recent historical maxima.
When challenged about inflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs into the market propping up the market in ways that have been absent in previous cycles, Bags noted that every previous bull market had its catalysts, which nevertheless failed to prevent a pullback.
Bitcoin is approaching the “danger zone”
Also analyzing price performance in relation to halving is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
Although Bitcoin set a new historical maximum before its halving in 2024 – an exceptional event – he suggests that the moment is still a case of classic bullish market positioning.
In the chart posted on X, he compared this year with the behavior of last year’s halving in 2020.
“Technically speaking, bitcoin is still in its Pre-Halving Rally (light blue) phase,” he explained.
“However, Bitcoin is on the threshold of transitioning from its ‘Pre-Halving Rally’ phase into its ‘Pre-Halving Retrace’ phase (orange and dark blue circle).”
Another post warned that BTC/USD is about to enter the riskiest part of the pre-halving phase, which he called the “danger zone.”
“Historically, Bitcoin has conducted Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before Halving,” he noted.
