Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced the suspension of his campaign, causing a frenzy among Polymarket players . Polymarket’s bet on whether Kennedy will end his presidential campaign by Friday has sparked controversy, as players are unsure whether it has been resolved or not.
The specific bet, which attracted more than $300,000, proclaimed that the market would settle favorably if he “officially announces his withdrawal” from November’s clutch of elections.
Kennedy confuses Polymarket players
Polymarket traders estimated a 90% chance that Kennedy would withdraw on Friday, just before his speech in Arizona.
However, when he addressed his supporters, the odds dropped to just 6% after his announcement that he would not abandon his presidential campaign entirely, but would withdraw his candidacy from key states such as Arizona. “I’m not ending my campaign, I’m simply suspending it,” he – he said.
“Our polls have consistently shown that if I had remained on the ballot as a candidate in key states, I probably would have given the election to Democrats with whom I disagree on the most existential issues.”
Meanwhile, some investors referred to newspaper articles for insights, further adding to the confusion due to conflicting reports from major news outlets.
For example, one Fox News article released said Kennedy had “withdrawn from his candidacy for the White House,” while a Reuters article said Kennedy “abandoned his campaign on Friday.”
Interestingly, this is not the first time Polymarket players have faced controversial results. Earlier this year, the platform faced a disputed $680,000 bet related to airdrop LayerZero, which was ultimately settled by UMA, a DeFi protocol that uses token-based voting to resolve disputes through what it describes as a “decentralized truth machine.”
After the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announcement, betting odds on Polymarket shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump.
